Measuring hazards

Assessment Methodology

Probability

To assess probability, KIPDA employs a simple breakdown – low, medium, and high. These rankings are based on the frequency of past events. 

  • Low: hazard has not happened historically but could possibly occur in the future.
  • Moderate: hazard has happened is historically but is unlikely to occur on an annual basis (less than 10% likelihood annually). 
  • High: hazard is likely (10% or greater) to happen on an annual basis. 

Vulnerability 

To understand the risk that hazards pose to the region, the KIPDA Hazard Mitigation Plan employs a qualitative vulnerability analysis. We analyze hazards qualitatively because these events and their impacts are unpredictable and distinct. Therefore, we cannot simply sum up vulnerability as an estimated loss figure because such methodology assumes that infrastructure, property, and community members are equally vulnerable. KIPDA’s hazard vulnerability analysis combines probability, past and potential* damages, and past and potential human impacts to understand a hazard’s vulnerability. 

  • Low: event has not happened historically, and the potential impact of the event is minimal (0 lives lost, few damages, and no damages greater than $500,000).
  • Moderate: event has happened historically but is unlikely to occur on an annual basis (less than 10% likelihood annually), and the potential impact of the event is moderate (0 lives lost, up to 20 injuries, and damages between $500,000 and $999,000).
  • High: event occurs often (10% or greater likelihood annually) and the potential impact of the event is high (1 or more deaths, 20+ injuries, and damages more than $1,000,000).

For hazards that do not quite meet the criteria for low, moderate, or high, such as event(s) costing more than $1 million in damages but no deaths or injuries, a label such as low to moderate, moderate to high, etc. is employed.

*Impacts are analyzed as past and potential. For example, if a tornado, has not caused a death in the past within a county but clearly has the potential to (i.e. deaths in other counties, magnitude of event, etc.), it will satisfy the criteria.